A Time-Series Analysis of My Girlfriends Mood Swings

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Despite recent advances in active listening, date night, and extended pillow talk; it is becoming increasingly more difficult to forecast Tiffany’s mood. With more and more Playstation 5 exclusive games, it is becoming increasingly important to determine Tiffany’s mood before purchasing a new game and playing online Co-op with the boys every evening for a week straight. This paper aims to determine the optimal forecast model of my girlfriend's drastically growing mood swings by comparing simple moving averages, to sextuple exponential smoothing and even an overly complicated Machine Learning model. Despite initial analysis showing non-stationarity and highly seasonal mood swings, the more simple models provided less riskier forecast predictions when planning a three day bender after Matt got divorced.